The Real Cost of Commitment

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IDEAS
The Real Cost of Commitment

Most people commit to things simply by saying, “I’m committing to this thing.”

That’s not a real commitment. It’s like standing at Base Camp, pointing up to the peak of Mount Everest and exclaiming, “That’s where I’m headed!”

Words are great. But the real test is yet to come.

Most of us fool ourselves into thinking we’re committed by saying this throw-away line and telling ourselves a story that confirms our bias.

Genuine commitment to anything, whether a marriage or a startup, requires more than just saying you’re committed.

It requires you to focus narrowly and ignore other people’s advice. At the extremes, it may even require distancing yourself from old friends or moving country.

Once you find something worthy of your long-term commitment, you need the courage and discipline to say no to shiny new opportunities.

After years of exploring and experimenting, remaining committed can be incredibly hard.

But this is the cost of real commitment. And to obtain success, it has to be paid.

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INSIGHTS
1 Chart

Startup success rate from Series A to Series B

This week’s chart tracks how quickly startups move from Series A to Series B funding rounds, analysing nearly 10,000 US companies from 2018 to 2024.

The chart shows a wild peak in 2020-2021, during which companies raised B rounds incredibly fast. 10.5% of companies that raised a Series A in Q1 ‘21 raised a Series B within the next 6 months. This was peak market froth.

A brutal slowdown followed in 2022. Just 1.9% of companies raising a Series A in Q1 ‘22 raised a Series B within 6 months.

However, the 2024 cohort seems to be returning to historical norms.

The pattern shown in the chart tells the story of the complete market cycle—from boom to bust to recovery.

The takeaway for founders?

The “normal” timeframe for raising a Series B is 24-36 months after the Series A, not the 6-month sprints we saw in 2021's boom.

As we return to historical patterns, founders must plan their runway over longer timelines.

The data clearly shows that trying to raise too quickly typically leads to lower success rates in normal market conditions.

Building a sustainable company is building (and raising capital) for the long term.

1 Post

1 Video

THOUGHTS
Quote I’m Pondering

“A good idea is worthless without impeccable execution and a commitment to iterate.”

— Zach Klein, co-founder of Vimeo

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Thanks for reading,

— Luca

P.S. The golden cycle of LinkedIn…